It is predicted that the market price of sucralose will increase significantly
Sucralose is currently considered to be one of the most advantageous sugar substitute products. Its safety, stability, and taste are widely recognized by the food industry, and it is also an ideal food for patients with obesity, cardiovascular disease and diabetes. Sweet alternatives.
China is a major producer and exporter of sucralose. The production of sucralose accounts for more than 80% of the total global production. About 80% of the products are exported and 20% are sold domestically. In recent years, as governments around the world have called for and controlled sugar reduction, consumers have become more and more aware of healthy diets, and the low-sugar and no-sugar market has developed rapidly, which has promoted the rapid growth of global sucralose market demand.
In 2015, China exported 2,700 tons of sucralose. By 2019, China's export volume of sucralose has reached more than 6,600 tons, which is about 2.5 times that of 2015. In 2019, the export volume of sucralose increased by 34% year-on-year. It can be seen that the global market demand for sucralose will continue to grow rapidly from 2020 to 2021.
At the beginning of 2020, the epidemic caused by the new coronavirus caused national enterprises to postpone the resumption of work. Chinese sucralose production enterprises almost temporarily suspended production, which will inevitably lead to a shortage of global sucralose supply. Starting from January 2021, due to the Spring Festival holiday, epidemic traffic control, and insufficient rework of production personnel, sucralose raw material companies and sucralose production companies still cannot resume production in February, resulting in almost no inventory in the market and production companies According to our research center, the quotation of sucralose has generally risen by about 15% after the Spring Festival.
Affected by the epidemic, in order to ensure the safety and health of employees of sucralose companies, companies must formulate resumption of work and production plans and emergency plans, implement the main responsibilities and measures for epidemic prevention and control, and ensure that prevention and control mechanisms are in place, quarantine inspections are in place, and quarantine inspections are in place. Facilities, materials and raw materials are in place, internal management is in place, and publicity and education are in place. Only those enterprises that fully meet the epidemic prevention requirements can resume production. At this stage, due to insufficient sucralose upstream raw material enterprises to resume work, relatively insufficient production personnel in place, and relatively short supply of epidemic prevention materials, Chinese sucralose production enterprises may not be able to resume or completely resume normal production in the short term. The production capacity cannot be effectively and completely released, which will increase the production cost of enterprises, which will promote the gradual increase in the market price of sucralose.
In addition, Pakistan and India, the main sugarcane producing regions in the world, are currently suffering from desert locust plagues, which largely affects the sugarcane yield of the year. Data shows that the combined sugar production of India and Pakistan in 2018/2019 accounted for 21% of the global total. Among them, India accounts for more than 17% of the world. Coupled with the impact of successive natural disasters in 2019, resulting in a sharp drop in global sugar production, rising international sugar prices and insufficient supply will encourage application companies to choose sugar substitute products to alleviate the impact of sugar on their companies. Therefore, affected by the international sugar supply, the market demand for sucralose will further increase.
According to the above-mentioned insufficient production capacity of sucralose and market demand growth in 2020-201, the supply situation of sucralose products will become more and more tense. In 2016-2017, affected by environmental protection policies, the market price of sucralose increased by more than 100%. It is expected that the market price of sucralose will increase by more than 50% this year.